All analysis from category Macro comment
Macro comment
Inflation in February: slow decline in inflation
Consumer prices jumped by 0.6% month-on-month in February. This is an uncomfortably fast rise. Many analysts and probably the CNB had expected slower growth. Since consumer prices rose by 1.3% in February 2022, year-on-year price growth fell by 0.8 percentage points to 16.7%.
Macro comment
Industry in January: slump held back by the automotive sector
Industrial data from January show a decline in production that has been ongoing for several months in most sectors. This decline was partly held back by developments in the automotive sector, but falling domestic and foreign demand means that a dramatic improvement cannot be expected in the coming months. Industrial production declined by 1.4 per cent year-on-year after adjusting for calendar effects, and fell by 2.7 per cent month-on-month after calendar and seasonal adjustments. Although the value of new orders rose by 1.6 per cent, new orders from abroad fell by 3.5 per cent, which is a problem for a small export-based economy.
Macro comment
Foreign trade in January: back in surplus after a year
The balance of foreign trade ended in a surplus of CZK 9.5 billion in January, an improvement of CZK 2.1 billion year-on-year. After a year, the balance of trade is in surplus again, but the 12-month balance remains at an appalling CZK -197.6 billion. Seasonal factors also improved the foreign trade balance. After seasonal adjustment, the trade balance ended in a deficit of CZK 2.5 billion.
Macro comment
Unemployment in February: increase in job vacancies after a year
The share of unemployed people in the 15-64 population stagnated at 3.9% in February. It is 0.4 percentage point higher year-on-year. There were 282.5 thousand jobseekers registered at labour offices, roughly the same as in January. Seasonally adjusted, we estimate that the jobless rate was flat at 3.6%.
Macro comment
Average wage in Q4: Wage growth accelerates at the end of the year
Is it too little or too much? Average wages increased by 7.9 percent year-on-year to CZK 43,412 in the fourth quarter of last year. However, after taking inflation into account, it fell by 6.7 percent in real terms. For the whole of last year, the average wage was CZK 40 353, which was 6.5 percent higher than in 2021.
