All analysis from category Macro comment
Macro comment
Unemployment in December: Seasonal increase and structural problem
As usual, the labor market tightened somewhat in December. However, behind the usual seasonal fluctuations lies the continuing growth of structural unemployment. The number of job seekers rose to 354,314 at the end of last year, which is almost 48,000 more than a year ago. The share of unemployed people in the population rose to 4.8 percent, the highest figure since February 2017.
Macro comment
Industrial production in November: A positive surprise
There seem to be increasing signs of a revival in the Czech economy. While domestic demand has already recovered from the inflation crisis, industry remained a weak spot in the economy. However, it unexpectedly picked up in November last year. Month-on-month, industrial production volume increased by 2.4 percent, and the year-on-year growth rate accelerated to 5.7 percent. We last saw similar results in 2022.
Macro comment
Consumer prices in December: Stable low inflation
Inflation ends 2025 just above the central bank's target. It was last lower at the end of 2018. In December, the consumer price index fell by 0.3 percent month-on-month, with year-on-year inflation reaching 2.1 percent. The result is a combination of falling food and energy prices.
Macro comment
Foreign trade in November: Slight decline in positive balance
The Czech Republic's trade balance remains significantly in surplus, but the acceleration in domestic demand is reflected in faster growth in imports than exports and a slight deterioration in the overall balance. Foreign trade reached a surplus of CZK 16.5 billion in November, which is CZK 5.0 billion less than a year ago.
Macro comment
CNB: A quiet Christmas
The probability of a change in interest rates at the last meeting of the CNB Bank Board was negligible. And this scenario played out exactly as expected. The CNB Bank Board left the base interest rate at 3.50%.
