All analysis from category Macro comment
Macro comment
State budget in June: one-off budget improvement
In January-June, the central government ran a deficit of CZK 215 billion. In June alone, the budget was in surplus by CZK 56 billion. Although the twelve-month balance has fallen, it still remains an appalling CZK 393 billion and we are nowhere near the full-year target of CZK 295 billion.
Macro comment
Purchasing Managers' Index in June: the situation in industry is deteriorating, the cause is on the demand side
Conditions in the Czech manufacturing industry have deteriorated again. The Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index fell by 2 points in June to 40.8 pts. This is the largest deterioration in operating conditions since May 2020.
Macro comment
Consumer prices in May: Disinflation goes on
As expected, inflation is easing and a return to single digits is in sight. The consumer price index rose 0.3 percent month-on-month in June. Year-on-year inflation fell from 12.7 to 11.1 percent. Core inflation has already fallen below 10 percent.
Macro comment
Unemployment in May: seasonal decline in unemployment
The share of unemployed persons in the 15-64 population fell by 0.1 percentage point to 3.5% in March. It is 0.3 percentage point higher year-on-year. 254 thousand jobseekers were registered at the labour offices. After seasonal adjustment, we estimate that the jobless rate stagnated at 3.6%, or that the decline in unemployment is due purely to seasonal factors, not to developments in the economy.
Macro comment
Retail sales in April: falling sales and uncertain outlook
Retail sales in April were down year-on-year for a year in a row. Sales declines are recorded in most product groups and an improvement is likely to occur next year at the earliest.
