All analysis from category Macro comment
Macro comment
Foreign trade in April: in surplus again
The balance of foreign trade ended in a surplus of CZK 8.4 billion in April, a year-on-year improvement of CZK 36.6 billion. So far this year, foreign trade is in surplus in every month - a stark contrast to 2022.
Macro comment
Industry in April: no forward movement
Industrial production declined month-on-month in April, and the number of sectors showing a decline is still increasing. As in previous months, this decline was partly held back by developments in the automotive sector.
Macro comment
Wages in Q1 2023: 6 years back in real terms
The pace of wage growth is accelerating, but the real value of average wages is still falling. Inflation is of course to blame. In Q1, the average wage increased by 8.6 percent year-on-year to CZK 41,265. This is the highest increase in the last five years, if we ignore the peak of the pandemic, when health workers received extraordinary bonuses. In real terms, however, average wages fell for the sixth quarter in a row, this time by 6.7 per cent.
Macro comment
May budget: the government is falling into a trap it dug for itself
In January-May, the central government ran a deficit of CZK 271 billion. In May alone, the budget was in deficit by CZK 71 billion. The twelve-month balance may have fallen, but it still remains an appalling CZK 443 billion and we are nowhere near the full-year target of CZK 295 billion. This year's budget replicates the historically worst budget of 2021, which ended in a deficit of CZK 420 billion.
Macro comment
PMI in May: decline in final prices of company products
Business conditions in May have been below the neutral value of 50 points for a year in a row, indicating a decline in business activity
