All analysis from category Macro comment
Macro comment
Industry and foreign trade in December: relatively optimistic news from the Czech economy
Industrial production rose by 0.2% m/m in December. On a calendar-adjusted annual basis, it rose by 4.0% y/y. For the full year 2022, the industry then grew by 1.7%, getting back to the pre-covid level of year 2019.
Macro comment
State budget in January: in deep deficit
In January, the central government ran a deficit of CZK 6.8 billion. After adjusting for EU revenues, the deficit reached CZK 10.8 billion. Last January, the budget was in surplus by CZK 3.9 billion. However, the state was operating with a budget provision, hence expenditure was limited. The twelve-month balance rose by CZK 11 billion to CZK 371 billion.
Macro comment
PMI in January: continued decline in manufacturing
Business conditions in January were below the neutral 50-point threshold marking a decline in business activity for the seventh month in a row. The month-on-month improvement is mainly due to a reduction in upward pressure on prices continuing to rise. The seasonally adjusted manufacturing purchasing managers' index rose slightly month-on-month in January from 42.6 points to 44.6 points. The expected stagnation of the Czech economy is likely to be reflected in industrial production.
Macro comment
GDP in Q4: Shallow recession at the end of the year
High inflation is taking its toll. The decline in the real value of household incomes and savings has had a significant impact on household consumption and affected the performance of the economy as a whole. Gross domestic product contracted by 0.3 per cent in the fourth quarter of last year compared with the previous quarter, and the annual growth rate slowed to 0.4 per cent. For the whole of last year, GDP increased by 2.5 per cent.
Macro comment
Retail sales in November: sales decline deepens in the food segment
Retail sales have fallen for the seventh month in a row on a year-on-year basis. In a number of sectors, the decline in sales has slowed slightly, but no change in negative household sentiment is expected in the coming months, which is caused by a significant decline in real wages reducing final consumption. Retail sales excluding motor vehicles fell by 0.3 per cent month-on-month on a calendar and seasonally adjusted basis. Year-on-year, retail sales fell by 8.7 per cent on a calendar-adjusted basis.
