All analysis from category Macro comment
Macro comment
State budget for February: public finances on the edge of the abyss
In January-February, the central government ran a deficit of CZK 119.7 billion. In February alone, the budget was in deficit by CZK 112.9 billion. The twelve-month balance has risen to CZK 434.8 billion and we are nowhere near the full-year target of CZK 295 billion.
Macro comment
PMI in February: cooling demand reduces the number of new orders
Business conditions in February were below the neutral 50-point threshold marking a decline in business activity for the eighth month in a row. In the month-on-month comparison, there is stagnation, where, on the one hand, firms' output continues to decline due to falling household demand, while on the other hand, firms' costs are being cut, mainly due to falling energy prices. The seasonally adjusted manufacturing purchasing managers' index fell slightly month-on-month in February from 44.6 points to 44.3 points.
Macro comment
Inflation in January: the last rise in inflation before tapering
The most anticipated macroeconomic data of the beginning of the year, January inflation, is here. Those who shopped in stores in January may have noticed that prices rose significantly. And the statistics confirm this impression. Consumer prices jumped by 6.0% month-on-month in January.
Macro comment
Unemployment in January: slight seasonal increase
The share of unemployed people aged 15-64 rose by 0.2 percentage point to 3.9% in January. It is 0.3 percentage point higher year-on-year. There were 283,000 jobseekers registered at the labour offices, 10,000 more than in December. This is the usual seasonal increase. Seasonally adjusted, we estimate that the jobless rate was flat at 3.6%.
Macro comment
Retail sales in December: no improvement at the end of the year
Retail sales fell for the eighth month in a row in December. Declines are recorded in virtually all product groups and no improvement is expected in the outlook. Retail sales excluding motor vehicles fell by 0.7 per cent month-on-month on a calendar and seasonally adjusted basis. Year-on-year, retail sales fell by 7.3 per cent on a calendar-adjusted basis. For the full year 2022, retail sales fell 3.6 percent. This is the largest decline since 1998.
