All analysis from category Macro comment
Macro comment
Consumer prices in January: Significant drop at the beginning of the year
Inflation measured by the consumer price index has returned to the CNB's tolerance band for the first time since 2021. The chapter of the unprecedented rise in the price level over the past two years can therefore be declared closed, but the consequences of the inflationary wave will be visible for many months to come.
Macro comment
CNB: 50 bps rate cut
The CNB`s Board decided to cut rates by 50 basis points. The main two-week repo rate is currently at 6.25%. This is the right decision in a situation where strong inflationary pressures have eased but, on the contrary, the real economy is slowing down. Although the economy narrowly avoided a recession at the end of last year, we are not expecting any rapid growth. In this environment, it is logical not to have an overly restrictive monetary policy. After all, the autumn forecast already envisaged a sharp cut in rates at the start of this year and the new forecast will be no different.
Macro comment
Unemployment in January: slight deterioration in the labour market
The share of unemployed in the 15-64 population increased by 0.3 percentage point to 4.0% in January. This is an increase of 0.1 percentage point year-on-year. 296 thousand jobseekers were registered at the labour offices, 16 thousand more than in December. The increase in unemployment in January is due to both seasonal factors (seasonal lay-offs in agriculture or construction) and non-seasonal factors, see the year-on-year increase in unemployment. On a seasonally adjusted basis, we estimate that the unemployment rate rose by 0.1 percentage point to 3.7%.
Macro comment
Retail sales in December: rebound from the year-end trough
Retail sales had risen for the second month in a row in December on a year-on-year basis and household consumption appeared to be starting to rise slowly in line with the decline in inflation.
Macro comment
Foreign trade in 2023: full-year surplus of CZK 123 billion
The balance of foreign trade ended in a surplus of CZK 3.5 billion in December. This is a year-on-year improvement of CZK 5.9 billion. Worse, exports are falling quite sharply, by 7.2% year-on-year, but imports are falling similarly sharply, by 8.9%. On a seasonally adjusted basis, exports increased by 1.6% month-on-month, while imports rose by 4.2%.
