All analysis from category Macro comment
Macro comment
Unemployment in April: Gradual erosion
The labour market is seemingly calm. In reality, the situation is slowly deteriorating, reflecting the lacklustre recovery in the growth of the Czech economy. By the end of April, the share of unemployed in the population had fallen to 3.7 per cent from 3.9 per cent in March. This is, of course, due to the usual spring seasonality.
Macro comment
Retail sales in March: continued growth in household consumption
Retail sales rose for the fourth month in a row in March on a year-on-year basis, in line with the sharp decline in inflation and rising real household incomes.
Macro comment
Industry in March: production drops again
Industrial production in March showed a year-on-year decline again after growth in February. Certain sectors have shown a decline in production for several months in a row, and a decrease was also recorded in the production of automobiles. On a calendar-adjusted basis, industrial production declined by 2.7 per cent year-on-year, while on a calendar- and seasonally-adjusted basis it fell by 1.6 per cent month-on-month.
Macro comment
Foreign trade in March: Solid exports and still weak domestic demand
Foreign trade in March was mainly influenced by three factors: rising oil prices, slowly recovering domestic demand and a solid export performance despite slow growth in Germany. However, the results were marred by the fact that March had three fewer working days. As a result, exports fell by 3.3 per cent year-on-year, while imports fell by 9.0 per cent. The trade balance posted a surplus of CZK 39.3 billion, more than double last year's figure.
Macro comment
CNB: Another significant reduction in interest rates
The CNB Banking Council decided to cut interest rates again by 50 basis points. The main two-week repo rate will drop to 5.25 percent. The return of inflation to the two percent inflation target has opened up room for rapid rate cuts. Nevertheless, the CNB is lagging behind in reducing interest rates. Interest rates roughly one percentage point lower would correspond to the current economic situation and the inflation forecast.
