All analysis from category Macro comment
Macro comment
Trade balance August: still in deficit
In August, the balance of foreign trade ended in a deficit of CZK 28.2 billion, which is roughly the same deficit as in August last year. Exports fared well, growing by 27.9% year-on-year, while imports grew by 25.5%.
Macro comment
Industry in August: growth despite low comparative base
The August industrial data look positive at first glance, but growth was driven mainly by the low comparative base in the automotive sector from last year. Not much positive news can be found for the future outlook. The energy crisis will start to weigh heavily on the numbers once corporate energy price fixing ends. Industrial production increased by 7.2 per cent year-on-year after adjusting for calendar effects, and rose by 0.8 per cent month-on-month after calendar and seasonal adjustments. Although the value of new orders also rose by 18.7 per cent year-on-year, with the value of new orders from abroad rising by 14.9 per cent, the growth was again driven by the low comparative base of the previous year.
Macro comment
Retail in August: Decline in sales in virtually all sectors
Retail sales experienced a continuous month-on-month decline for the fifth month in a row. Households, facing rising costs through high inflation and declining real incomes, are cutting back their consumption more and more. In August, sales fell in virtually all product groups. A change in behaviour is not expected in the coming months. Retail sales excluding motor vehicles fell 0.7 percent month-on-month on a calendar- and seasonally-adjusted basis. Year-on-year, retail sales fell by 8.8 per cent on a calendar-adjusted basis.
Macro comment
State budget for September: on the way to a full-year deficit of around CZK 400 billion
In January-September, the central government ran a deficit of CZK 271 billion, while in September alone the deficit was CZK 40 billion. The twelve-month balance currently stands at CZK 364 billion. Tax revenue and expenditure are basically on track. More than 75% of the full-year plan has been collected, while about 75% of the full-year plan has been spent. Revenue from the EU is lagging behind, with only 40% of the full-year plan collected so far.
Macro comment
PMI in September: Hard winter is coming
The development of business conditions continued in September with negative sentiment. The combination of high inflation and falling production due to reduced household demand is causing considerable wrinkles on the foreheads of businesses.
