All analysis from category Macro comment
Macro comment
State budget for October: on the way to a full-year deficit of around CZK 370 billion
In January-October, the central government ran a deficit of CZK 287 billion, while in October alone the deficit was CZK 16 billion. The twelve-month balance currently stands at CZK 371 billion. Tax revenue and expenditure are basically on track. 86% of the full-year plan has been collected, while around 84% of the full-year plan has been spent, and we are currently 83% of the way through the year. EU revenue is lagging behind, with only 43% of the full year plan collected so far.
Macro comment
PMI in October: continued deterioration in business conditions
Looking at the development of business conditions, it seems that they have not yet found an imaginary bottom. The continuous decline has been going on since last December and the index itself is at its lowest level since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic. The reason is still the same, namely rising inflation combined with falling demand at home and abroad. The seasonally-adjusted manufacturing purchasing managers' index fell to 41.7 points in October from 44.7 points in September.
Macro comment
Q3 GDP: the beginning of the recession
Economic forecasts are a tricky thing, but a decline in household spending and overall gross domestic product was very likely this time. In Q3, GDP contracted 0.4 percent quarter-over-quarter and was still up 1.6 percent year-over-year.
Macro comment
Consumer prices in September: an expensive school year
The price hikes are not over. In September, higher natural gas prices in particular had an impact on consumer prices. The start of the school year and the rise in the price of goods and services related to education also had an impact. The only positive news is cheaper gasoline.
Macro comment
Unemployment September: renewed increase
The share of unemployed in the 15-64 population increased by 0.1 percentage point to 3.5% in September. 256 000 jobseekers were registered at the labour offices, 5 000 more than in August. Unemployment tends to fall in September. The labour market situation has thus deteriorated slightly. Seasonally adjusted, we estimate that the unemployment rate rose by 0.1 percentage point to 3.6%.
