All analysis from category Macro comment
Macro comment
Retail sales in September: downward sales trend continues.
Retail sales fall year-on-year for the fifth month in a row. While the momentum of the sales decline slowed slightly in September, household behavior will still be in savings-seeking mode and reducing their consumption due to rising costs and declining real incomes. Retail sales excluding motor vehicles rose by 0.8 per cent month-on-month on a calendar and seasonally adjusted basis. On a year-over-year basis, retail sales fell 5.6 percent on a calendar-adjusted basis.
Macro comment
Unemployment in October: fewer than 300k job vacancies for the first time since 2018
The share of unemployed in the 15-64 population stagnated at 3.5% in October. There were 256 thousand jobseekers registered at the labour offices, the same as September. Unemployment tends to fall in October. The labour market situation has thus deteriorated slightly. Seasonally adjusted, we estimate that the unemployment rate rose by 0.1 percentage point to 3.7%.
Macro comment
Trade balance in September: slight deficit reduction
The balance of foreign trade ended in a deficit of CZK 13.9 billion in September, a year-on-year improvement of CZK 2.6 billion. The twelve-month balance currently stands at CZK -174 billion, down slightly from August. Exports were strong with growth of 25.8% y-o-y (however, this is due to the low comparative base from last year), while imports grew by 23.8%.
Macro comment
Industry in September: stagnation with negative outlook
September industrial data show an expected gradual decline in production. This is partly held back by the automotive sector, which is growing thanks to the low comparative base of last year. The energy crisis will be fully apparent in the hard numbers when this statistical effect wears off. Industrial production increased 8.3 percent year-over-year after adjusting for calendar effects, but fell 0.2 percent month-over-month after both calendar and seasonal adjustments. The value of new orders increased by 21.9 per cent, but this is also influenced by the low comparison base of the previous year. The leading indicator of business conditions, the PMI, is already showing declining demand at home and abroad.
Macro comment
CNB: Waiting for a recession with stable rates
Nobody probably expected the change in interest rates in November this year. In line with these expectations, the CNB left interest rates unchanged, with the main repo rate remaining at 7.0%. At the same time, interventions to maintain the exchange rate of the koruna will continue. The CNB's forecast has changed, unfortunately for the worse.
