All analysis from category Macro comment
Macro comment
PMI in December: no improvement in conditions at the end of the year
Business conditions were below the neutral 50-point threshold marking a decline in business activity for the sixth month in a row in December. High inflation, declining production and falling new orders continue. The seasonally adjusted manufacturing purchasing managers' index rose slightly month-on-month in December from 41.6 points to 42.6 points. This situation is not expected to improve significantly even in the first half of 2023.
Macro comment
Consumer prices in November: Unstoppable inflation
The introduction of the savings tariff slowed but did not stop inflation. Rising energy prices pushed up the consumer price index by 1.2% month-on-month in November. Year-on-year inflation accelerated to 16.2%.
Macro comment
Unemployment in November: job vacancies fall again
The unemployment rate for the 15-64 population stagnated at 3.5% in November. There were 257,000 jobseekers registered at the labour offices, 1,000 more than in October. Seasonally adjusted, we estimate that the unemployment rate was flat at 3.7%.
Macro comment
Trade balance in October: still in deficit
The balance of foreign trade ended in a deficit of CZK 26.8 billion in October, a year-on-year deterioration of CZK 10.0 billion. The twelve-month balance currently stands at CZK -187 billion. For the year as a whole, the trade deficit will be CZK 200 billion. Exports continue to grow rapidly (+17.2% year-on-year), but imports are growing even faster (+19.2%).
Macro comment
Industry in October: growth due to the automotive industry
Industrial data in October show mixed results. The decline in many sectors was offset by growth in the automotive industry due to the low comparative base from last year. The impact of the energy crisis is likely to be seen in the industrial numbers when energy prices are largely refixed early next year. Industrial production increased 3.1 percent year-over-year after adjusting for calendar effects, and fell 3.7 percent month-over-month after both calendar and seasonal adjustments. The value of new orders rose by 18.1 per cent, but here again the result is affected by the low comparison base. In addition, many important sectors have already seen a decline, for example, basic metals production.
