All analysis from category Macro comment
Macro comment
GDP in Q4: Shallow recession at the end of the year
High inflation is taking its toll. The decline in the real value of household incomes and savings has had a significant impact on household consumption and affected the performance of the economy as a whole. Gross domestic product contracted by 0.3 per cent in the fourth quarter of last year compared with the previous quarter, and the annual growth rate slowed to 0.4 per cent. For the whole of last year, GDP increased by 2.5 per cent.
Macro comment
Retail sales in November: sales decline deepens in the food segment
Retail sales have fallen for the seventh month in a row on a year-on-year basis. In a number of sectors, the decline in sales has slowed slightly, but no change in negative household sentiment is expected in the coming months, which is caused by a significant decline in real wages reducing final consumption. Retail sales excluding motor vehicles fell by 0.3 per cent month-on-month on a calendar and seasonally adjusted basis. Year-on-year, retail sales fell by 8.7 per cent on a calendar-adjusted basis.
Macro comment
Consumer prices in December: Respite time
Inflation took a breather at the end of the year. On a month-on-month basis, the price level was unchanged in December. Year-on-year inflation slowed slightly to 15.8 per cent. However, the key will be the start of this year, when there is a revaluation of a number of services and goods where price lists do not change every month. This is where the strength of current inflation will actually become apparent.
Macro comment
Unemployment in December: slight seasonal increase
The share of unemployed persons in the 15-64 population rose by 0.2 percentage point to 3.7% in December. 272 000 jobseekers were registered at the labour offices, 15 000 more than in November. Traditionally, the number of unemployed persons rises in December for seasonal reasons. However, after seasonal adjustment, we estimate that the unemployment rate fell slightly to 3.6%. For all of 2022, the jobless rate was 3.4% - a decline of 0.4 percentage points.
Macro comment
Trade balance in November: deficit widens
The balance of foreign trade ended in a deficit of CZK 25.5 billion in November, a year-on-year deterioration of CZK 29.4 billion. The twelve-month balance in November was CZK -214.3 billion, a deterioration by almost CZK 30 billion compared to October. Exports performed well, growing by 10.8% year-on-year, but imports grew even faster, by 18.7%.
