All analysis from category Macro comment
Macro comment
Unemployment in January: slight seasonal increase
The share of unemployed people aged 15-64 rose by 0.2 percentage point to 3.9% in January. It is 0.3 percentage point higher year-on-year. There were 283,000 jobseekers registered at the labour offices, 10,000 more than in December. This is the usual seasonal increase. Seasonally adjusted, we estimate that the jobless rate was flat at 3.6%.
Macro comment
Retail sales in December: no improvement at the end of the year
Retail sales fell for the eighth month in a row in December. Declines are recorded in virtually all product groups and no improvement is expected in the outlook. Retail sales excluding motor vehicles fell by 0.7 per cent month-on-month on a calendar and seasonally adjusted basis. Year-on-year, retail sales fell by 7.3 per cent on a calendar-adjusted basis. For the full year 2022, retail sales fell 3.6 percent. This is the largest decline since 1998.
Macro comment
Industry and foreign trade in December: relatively optimistic news from the Czech economy
Industrial production rose by 0.2% m/m in December. On a calendar-adjusted annual basis, it rose by 4.0% y/y. For the full year 2022, the industry then grew by 1.7%, getting back to the pre-covid level of year 2019.
Macro comment
State budget in January: in deep deficit
In January, the central government ran a deficit of CZK 6.8 billion. After adjusting for EU revenues, the deficit reached CZK 10.8 billion. Last January, the budget was in surplus by CZK 3.9 billion. However, the state was operating with a budget provision, hence expenditure was limited. The twelve-month balance rose by CZK 11 billion to CZK 371 billion.
Macro comment
PMI in January: continued decline in manufacturing
Business conditions in January were below the neutral 50-point threshold marking a decline in business activity for the seventh month in a row. The month-on-month improvement is mainly due to a reduction in upward pressure on prices continuing to rise. The seasonally adjusted manufacturing purchasing managers' index rose slightly month-on-month in January from 42.6 points to 44.6 points. The expected stagnation of the Czech economy is likely to be reflected in industrial production.
