All analysis from category Macro comment
Macro comment
Unemployment in November: job vacancies fall again
The unemployment rate for the 15-64 population stagnated at 3.5% in November. There were 257,000 jobseekers registered at the labour offices, 1,000 more than in October. Seasonally adjusted, we estimate that the unemployment rate was flat at 3.7%.
Macro comment
Trade balance in October: still in deficit
The balance of foreign trade ended in a deficit of CZK 26.8 billion in October, a year-on-year deterioration of CZK 10.0 billion. The twelve-month balance currently stands at CZK -187 billion. For the year as a whole, the trade deficit will be CZK 200 billion. Exports continue to grow rapidly (+17.2% year-on-year), but imports are growing even faster (+19.2%).
Macro comment
Industry in October: growth due to the automotive industry
Industrial data in October show mixed results. The decline in many sectors was offset by growth in the automotive industry due to the low comparative base from last year. The impact of the energy crisis is likely to be seen in the industrial numbers when energy prices are largely refixed early next year. Industrial production increased 3.1 percent year-over-year after adjusting for calendar effects, and fell 3.7 percent month-over-month after both calendar and seasonal adjustments. The value of new orders rose by 18.1 per cent, but here again the result is affected by the low comparison base. In addition, many important sectors have already seen a decline, for example, basic metals production.
Macro comment
Retail sales in October: the biggest drop since the start of the pandemic
Retail sales fall for the sixth month in a row in annual comparison. The drop of nearly ten percent is the biggest since the pandemic began in 2020, but then much of the economy was shut down; now the reason is different. Czech households are seeing their living standards fall at a record pace through high inflation and they are having to cut back significantly on their consumption. Retail sales excluding motor vehicles fell by 1.8 per cent month-on-month, both calendar and seasonally adjusted. On a year-on-year basis, retail sales fell by 9.4 per cent on a calendar-adjusted basis.
Macro comment
Wages in Q3: Significant real decline continues
One of the main characteristics of the economic developments this year is undoubtedly the significant real wage decline, which is lowering the living standards of most households and reducing their willingness to spend in shops, restaurants and on services. In Q3, the average gross wage in the Czech economy increased by 6.1 per cent year-on-year to CZK 39 858, but due to high inflation, the real value of the average wage decreased by 9.8 per cent.
