All analysis from category Macro comment
Macro comment
March state budget: public finances fall into the abyss
In January-March, the central government ran a deficit of CZK 166.2 billion. In March alone, the budget was in deficit by CZK 46.5 billion. The twelve-month balance rose to CZK 467.4 billion and we are nowhere near the full-year target of CZK 295 billion.
Macro comment
Retail sales in January: sales decline continues at the beginning of the year
Retail sales fell for the ninth month in a row in January. The decline is still evident in most product groups, in other words, no significant improvement is expected in the coming months. Retail sales excluding motor vehicles rose by 0.3 per cent month-on-month on a calendar and seasonally adjusted basis. On a year-on-year basis, retail sales fell by 7.7 per cent on a calendar-adjusted basis.
Macro comment
Inflation in February: slow decline in inflation
Consumer prices jumped by 0.6% month-on-month in February. This is an uncomfortably fast rise. Many analysts and probably the CNB had expected slower growth. Since consumer prices rose by 1.3% in February 2022, year-on-year price growth fell by 0.8 percentage points to 16.7%.
Macro comment
Industry in January: slump held back by the automotive sector
Industrial data from January show a decline in production that has been ongoing for several months in most sectors. This decline was partly held back by developments in the automotive sector, but falling domestic and foreign demand means that a dramatic improvement cannot be expected in the coming months. Industrial production declined by 1.4 per cent year-on-year after adjusting for calendar effects, and fell by 2.7 per cent month-on-month after calendar and seasonal adjustments. Although the value of new orders rose by 1.6 per cent, new orders from abroad fell by 3.5 per cent, which is a problem for a small export-based economy.
Macro comment
Foreign trade in January: back in surplus after a year
The balance of foreign trade ended in a surplus of CZK 9.5 billion in January, an improvement of CZK 2.1 billion year-on-year. After a year, the balance of trade is in surplus again, but the 12-month balance remains at an appalling CZK -197.6 billion. Seasonal factors also improved the foreign trade balance. After seasonal adjustment, the trade balance ended in a deficit of CZK 2.5 billion.
