All analysis from category Macro comment
Macro comment
Industry in November: continued decline towards the end of the year
Industrial production in November showed a year-on-year decline for the second month in a row. In addition, production is also down month-on-month.
Macro comment
Foreign trade in November: Weak demand from Germany and Slovakia
Foreign trade mirrors the Czech economy. While exports are weighed down by the weakness of the German economy, imports reflect the recovery in domestic demand. Exports increased by 4.4 per cent year-on-year in November, while imports rose by 5.8 per cent. The trade balance showed a surplus of 23.6 billion euro. This is CZK 4.2 billion less than a year ago.
Macro comment
State budget in 2024: Higher taxes and flooding
On the surface, the state budget turned out well last year. The projected deficit adjusted for the floods was CZK 282 billion. The actual figure is CZK 271 billion. In reality, however, CZK 15 billion was spent on the floods, not the budgeted CZK 30 billion. In 2023, the deficit would reach CZK 289 billion. The budget has therefore improved year-on-year, but the planned deficit has been exceeded.
Macro comment
PMI in December: no improvement at the end of the year
Business conditions in December were below the neutral 50-point mark indicating a decline in business activity for the thirty-first month in a row.
Macro comment
CNB: Break in interest rate cuts
Last December, the CNB started a series of monetary easing and has continued it regularly this year. Only now has it decided to skip it. Already in advance, some board members had announced concerns about a renewed rise in inflation. Indeed, the previous period of higher inflation is still reverberating in the services segment. However, an overall view of the economic situation shows that monetary policy remains inappropriately tight.
