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Deloitte
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All analysis from category Macro comment

Macro comment

Retail sales in March: continued growth in household consumption

Retail sales rose for the fourth month in a row in March on a year-on-year basis, in line with the sharp decline in inflation and rising real household incomes.

Macro comment

Industry in March: production drops again

Industrial production in March showed a year-on-year decline again after growth in February. Certain sectors have shown a decline in production for several months in a row, and a decrease was also recorded in the production of automobiles. On a calendar-adjusted basis, industrial production declined by 2.7 per cent year-on-year, while on a calendar- and seasonally-adjusted basis it fell by 1.6 per cent month-on-month.

Macro comment

Foreign trade in March: Solid exports and still weak domestic demand

Foreign trade in March was mainly influenced by three factors: rising oil prices, slowly recovering domestic demand and a solid export performance despite slow growth in Germany. However, the results were marred by the fact that March had three fewer working days. As a result, exports fell by 3.3 per cent year-on-year, while imports fell by 9.0 per cent. The trade balance posted a surplus of CZK 39.3 billion, more than double last year's figure.

Macro comment

CNB: Another significant reduction in interest rates

The CNB Banking Council decided to cut interest rates again by 50 basis points. The main two-week repo rate will drop to 5.25 percent. The return of inflation to the two percent inflation target has opened up room for rapid rate cuts. Nevertheless, the CNB is lagging behind in reducing interest rates. Interest rates roughly one percentage point lower would correspond to the current economic situation and the inflation forecast.

Macro comment

January-April budget: monthly deficit of CZK 48 billion in April

In the first four months of the year, the central government ran a deficit of CZK 153 billion. In the same period of the last year, the budget was in deficit of CZK 200 billion. The twelve-month deficit currently stands at CZK 242 billion.