All analysis from category Macro comment
Macro comment
Foreign trade in January: back in surplus after a year
The balance of foreign trade ended in a surplus of CZK 9.5 billion in January, an improvement of CZK 2.1 billion year-on-year. After a year, the balance of trade is in surplus again, but the 12-month balance remains at an appalling CZK -197.6 billion. Seasonal factors also improved the foreign trade balance. After seasonal adjustment, the trade balance ended in a deficit of CZK 2.5 billion.
Macro comment
Unemployment in February: increase in job vacancies after a year
The share of unemployed people in the 15-64 population stagnated at 3.9% in February. It is 0.4 percentage point higher year-on-year. There were 282.5 thousand jobseekers registered at labour offices, roughly the same as in January. Seasonally adjusted, we estimate that the jobless rate was flat at 3.6%.
Macro comment
Average wage in Q4: Wage growth accelerates at the end of the year
Is it too little or too much? Average wages increased by 7.9 percent year-on-year to CZK 43,412 in the fourth quarter of last year. However, after taking inflation into account, it fell by 6.7 percent in real terms. For the whole of last year, the average wage was CZK 40 353, which was 6.5 percent higher than in 2021.
Macro comment
State budget for February: public finances on the edge of the abyss
In January-February, the central government ran a deficit of CZK 119.7 billion. In February alone, the budget was in deficit by CZK 112.9 billion. The twelve-month balance has risen to CZK 434.8 billion and we are nowhere near the full-year target of CZK 295 billion.
Macro comment
PMI in February: cooling demand reduces the number of new orders
Business conditions in February were below the neutral 50-point threshold marking a decline in business activity for the eighth month in a row. In the month-on-month comparison, there is stagnation, where, on the one hand, firms' output continues to decline due to falling household demand, while on the other hand, firms' costs are being cut, mainly due to falling energy prices. The seasonally adjusted manufacturing purchasing managers' index fell slightly month-on-month in February from 44.6 points to 44.3 points.
