All analysis from category Macro comment
Macro comment
Q3 GDP: the beginning of the recession
Economic forecasts are a tricky thing, but a decline in household spending and overall gross domestic product was very likely this time. In Q3, GDP contracted 0.4 percent quarter-over-quarter and was still up 1.6 percent year-over-year.
Macro comment
Consumer prices in September: an expensive school year
The price hikes are not over. In September, higher natural gas prices in particular had an impact on consumer prices. The start of the school year and the rise in the price of goods and services related to education also had an impact. The only positive news is cheaper gasoline.
Macro comment
Unemployment September: renewed increase
The share of unemployed in the 15-64 population increased by 0.1 percentage point to 3.5% in September. 256 000 jobseekers were registered at the labour offices, 5 000 more than in August. Unemployment tends to fall in September. The labour market situation has thus deteriorated slightly. Seasonally adjusted, we estimate that the unemployment rate rose by 0.1 percentage point to 3.6%.
Macro comment
Trade balance August: still in deficit
In August, the balance of foreign trade ended in a deficit of CZK 28.2 billion, which is roughly the same deficit as in August last year. Exports fared well, growing by 27.9% year-on-year, while imports grew by 25.5%.
Macro comment
Industry in August: growth despite low comparative base
The August industrial data look positive at first glance, but growth was driven mainly by the low comparative base in the automotive sector from last year. Not much positive news can be found for the future outlook. The energy crisis will start to weigh heavily on the numbers once corporate energy price fixing ends. Industrial production increased by 7.2 per cent year-on-year after adjusting for calendar effects, and rose by 0.8 per cent month-on-month after calendar and seasonal adjustments. Although the value of new orders also rose by 18.7 per cent year-on-year, with the value of new orders from abroad rising by 14.9 per cent, the growth was again driven by the low comparative base of the previous year.
