All analysis from category Macro comment
Macro comment
Unemployment in January: slight deterioration in the labour market
The share of unemployed in the 15-64 population increased by 0.3 percentage point to 4.0% in January. This is an increase of 0.1 percentage point year-on-year. 296 thousand jobseekers were registered at the labour offices, 16 thousand more than in December. The increase in unemployment in January is due to both seasonal factors (seasonal lay-offs in agriculture or construction) and non-seasonal factors, see the year-on-year increase in unemployment. On a seasonally adjusted basis, we estimate that the unemployment rate rose by 0.1 percentage point to 3.7%.
Macro comment
Retail sales in December: rebound from the year-end trough
Retail sales had risen for the second month in a row in December on a year-on-year basis and household consumption appeared to be starting to rise slowly in line with the decline in inflation.
Macro comment
Foreign trade in 2023: full-year surplus of CZK 123 billion
The balance of foreign trade ended in a surplus of CZK 3.5 billion in December. This is a year-on-year improvement of CZK 5.9 billion. Worse, exports are falling quite sharply, by 7.2% year-on-year, but imports are falling similarly sharply, by 8.9%. On a seasonally adjusted basis, exports increased by 1.6% month-on-month, while imports rose by 4.2%.
Macro comment
Industry in December: year-end decline in production
Industrial production fell for the second month in a row in December, and despite a slight improvement month-on-month, the end of the year did not bring a substantial improvement in the situation.
Macro comment
January budget: deep deficit again
In January, the central government ran a deficit of CZK 26.0 billion. After adjusting for EU revenues, the deficit reached CZK 33.0 billion. Last year in January the budget was in deficit by CZK 10.8 billion, the year before it even reached a surplus of CZK 3.9 billion. The twelve-month balance fell by CZK 19 billion to CZK -308 billion.
